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Financial
Regulation
Short circuits?
On 16 March and 14 October, CEPR held the first two of a series of
workshops devoted to issues of financial regulation. The meetings began
with short presentations followed by longer `off the record' discussions
of the issues raised by the presentations. The first meeting focused on
`Security Market Regulation and the 1987 Crash: The Brady Commission
Report' and was funded by the International Stock Exchange. The
introductory presentation was given by Bruce Greenwald (Bell
Communications Research). Greenwald, a staff economist for the Brady
Commission, outlined the significant features of the crash, discussed
the proposals of the Brady Commission and, finally, dealt at length with
his own views of the role of `circuit-breakers' in such situations.
Greenwald emphasized certain features of the crash in the US markets.
The equity and futures markets completed unprecedented volumes of trades
during the period surrounding Monday 19 October only in the options
markets were trading volumes below normal. Not all of this trade took
place in an orderly fashion, however: in the OTC Market, for example,
prices for essentially contemporaneous trades frequently differed by as
much as 20%. Greenwald claimed that from 2.00 p.m. on 19 October until
the late afternoon of the following day, equity markets became separated
from any stable reality.
Greenwald pointed out that it was against this background that the Brady
Commission drew their conclusions. Greenwald's presentation focused on
one particular recommendation made by the Commission, to introduce
`circuit-breakers'. The role of circuit-breakers had been largely
misunderstood in the public debate, Greenwald claimed: they were
perceived only as mechanisms for shutting down trading. But
circuit-breakers also, and more importantly, consisted of mechanisms for
re-opening trade in an orderly way within as short a time as possible.
Greenwald suggested that carefully planned circuit-breaker mechanisms,
which included procedures for collecting orders and disseminating demand
information widely so as to re-establish orderly trading, would have
provided financial officials with an alternative and superior means of
managing the crisis.
His analysis suggested that one of the strongest arguments for a trading
halt was the breakdown of normal information transmission that occurred
late on Monday and on Tuesday. The large price movements of the previous
Wednesday to Friday did not in themselves present a severe problem:
information still flowed smoothly and participants were generally aware
of trading opportunities. There was nothing inherently wrong with such
large price movements, according to Greenwald, so long as they are
`fair' i.e. as long as there are not large asymmetries between the
information available to market specialists and to their customers. When
information transmission breaks down, however, the primary function of a
circuit-breaker should be to reinform participants.
The discussion of Greenwald's presentation centred around four issues:
the usefulness of circuit-breakers, the importance of portfolio
insurance, the role of capital adequacy and the international
transmission mechanism of market shocks. Not surprisingly, the
comparative performance of the UK and US markets received considerable
attention. It was generally agreed that, despite the introduction on
several occasions of `fast markets', UK markets did not experience the
very large spreads in contemporaneous trades that were displayed by
their US counterparts. Workshop participants were concerned that the
existence of circuit-breakers might tend to induce price movements and
might delay closing of positions and exacerbate clearing problems.
Greenwald accepted the first point but suggested such price movements
would not have a major impact. He responded to the second and third
points by suggesting that many of the credit-related problems seen in
October were due not to actual payment delays, but rather to unfounded
rumours about financial solvency. If trading halts serve to improve the
information of market participants, he argued, they may be helpful in
quashing rumours and the difficulties they create.
Participants generally agreed that insistence upon capital adequacy was
expensive: large quantities of capital must be kept at hand but are
almost never employed. The possibility of capital adequacy insurance was
discussed in detail. The existence of such insurance would create
problems of `moral hazard', however, and this might offset its potential
benefits. There were conflicting views of the importance of portfolio
insurance. Some participants argued that its general absence in the UK
helped performance, whereas others regarded it as of secondary
importance. Finally, participants at the workshop generally agreed that
our knowledge of markets was still imperfect, and inadequate for the
analysis of policy measures. The international transmission of shocks
and the relationship between cash and futures markets were singled out
by several participants as areas where our knowledge is particularly
limited.
The second workshop, funded by Mayer, Brown and Platt as well as the
International Stock Exchange, was devoted to the topic of insider
trading. It began with four presentations, followed by an `off the
record' roundtable discussion. The first presentation was given by Nicholas
Manne (International Stock Exchange), who outlined the different
types of insider trading violations that occur, the difficulties that
the Exchange faces in attempting to prevent insider dealing, and the
general detection processes it employs.
Manne suggested that the majority of cases of insider dealing are
`one-off' incidents involving individuals who do not regularly receive
such information. For such individuals the probability of detection is
very high. The small minority of regular insider traders are,
unfortunately, far harder to catch. Manne also emphasized the
considerable differences between the US and UK in approaches to
detection. He argued in favour of the UK approach, while conceding that
the technology and powers available to US regulators (e.g. ability to
see itemized telephone bills) were clearly beneficial.
Jeffrey Gordon (Mayer, Brown and Platt) then discussed the
implications of some recent US cases of insider dealing. He identified
the legal difficulties that can arise because of the difficulty of
identifying accurately the victims of insider trading. Gordon pointed
out that in the case of the litigation involving Drexel Burnham many of
their clients have remained loyal despite suggestions that Drexel
Burnham had been tipping `arbitrageurs' about their takeover plans.
Gordon conjectured that this loyalty may arise because the rapid
accumulation of shares by arbitrageurs may actually ease the final
takeover. In the Drexel Burnham case there may even be room for the
defence to argue that there had been no breach of duty to shareholders
of the companies. Gordon's general conclusion was that we should be
careful not to go too far in terms of increased surveillance and
enforcement of insider dealing.
Paul Grout (University of Bristol and CEPR), the workshop's third
speaker, pointed out that the literature on insider trading focused on
the issue of whether the activity is harmful or not. Grout pointed out
that while proof of harm is necessary to justify regulation, it is
clearly not a sufficient argument. Almost all potentially harmful
activities that can occur in trading situations are dealt with by
conventional market mechanisms, enforced by contractual obligations.
Research should concentrate instead on the precise nature of the `market
failures' that can arise in the presence of insider dealing.
In his presentation Grout considered the market failures that can arise
because of the presence of asymmetric information, transactions costs
and monopoly power. An employee who discovers a new idea which is of
value to his employer can increase his personal wealth by selling the
idea to a competitor or by trading in shares of the company before the
discovery is announced. Both actions can harm existing shareholders, but
the former is controlled by conventional contractual obligations while
the latter is controlled by the power of criminal law. Why should these
activities be treated differently? One reason, Grout suggested, was the
difficulty and cost of detection of cases of insider trading. Activities
with low detection rates can be curtailed more effectively by increasing
the perceived severity of the penalty upon detection: the prospect of
criminal proceedings could perform that role in the case of insider
trading.
The final presentation to the workshop was given by Richard Carter
of the Financial Services Division of the Department of Trade and
Industry. Carter discussed the history of the treatment of insider
trading in Britain. He gave particular emphasis to the period leading up
to the 1977 White Paper, showing how the rationale for legislation
changed over time. Carter then outlined current UK practice and compared
this to the European Directive. He discussed the difficulty of defining
an insider and how UK and Community views differ at present.
The discussion concluding the workshop covered many areas, but two
received particular emphasis. Not surprisingly, participants were
concerned with the `efficiency' aspects of insider trading, particularly
whether it increased bid-ask spreads in markets, whether it reduced
incentives at the margin to invest in wealth-generating activities and
whether it led to over-investment in information gathering. It was noted
out that one problem with `incentive' arguments in favour of insider
dealing is that such dealing can encourage market volatility because an
insider can make money from an unanticipated change in an asset's price.
Participants differed in their assessments of the damage caused by
insider trading: no one, however, was prepared to argue that there
should be no restrictions on insider trading. Participants also differed
in the importance attached to the distributional as opposed to the
efficiency consequences of insider trading. The second issue highlighted
in the discussion was the difficulty of harmonizing insider trading
legislation within the EC. Most workshop participants believed that
differences in capital market structures across member states would
prevent the Commission from achieving significant harmonization of
legislation in the EC
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