UK Education System
A sunset industry?

Changes in the birth rate and in the age structure of the population are important elements in forecasts of the future demand for education. Between 1965 and 1976 for example, there was a steady decline in the number of births in the United Kingdom. This decline led planners in the 1980s to reduce the resources available to primary, secondary and higher education. At a lunchtime meeting on 1 May, Ian Diamond argued that assessments of demand for education based largely on fertility were inadequate: other economic, social and demographic factors were important, especially in higher education. Their neglect had led to ill-informed decision-making in all sectors of education.

Ian Diamond is a Lecturer in Demography at the University of Southampton and currently Secretary of the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS). He has worked extensively on forecasts of demand for higher education and on the social and economic reasons for the decline in UK fertility. He spoke at one of a series of lunchtime meetings organized by CEPR and the BSPS.

In previous talks in the CEPR/BSPS series, William Brass and Kathleen Kiernan had argued that the 1965-76 decline in fertility represented postponement rather than rejection of childbearing, and in the last ten years birth rates have consistently exceeded their 1976 levels. While it seemed improbable that fertility would decline further, however, it was also unlikely to return to the high levels observed before 1965. This conclusion was supported by Diamond's research on childbearing by women who are 'upwardly mobile': these groups seemed to be particularly aware of the costs of family building. The fall in the number of births had resulted in a substantial decline in the school-age population. There were 30% fewer pupils in primary education in the early 1980s than in 1970. A similar decline in secondary school numbers would occur by the early 1990s.

This decline in the school-age population had led to reductions in education provision and had intensified pressures on the distribution of resources for compulsory education. Procedures for allocating central government funding to Local Education Authorities (LEAs) seek to reflect social disadvantage by taking account of variables such as the proportion of school-age children who live in crowded accommodation. This has been criticized on a number of counts. For example, the current funding formulae do not reflect the intensity of the problems which Research Fellow Mike Murphy and others have shown to be associated with local authority housing. They can also result in severe disadvantage if there are pockets of deprivation in otherwise well provided areas. Moreover, research by Stephen Simpson showed that the 119 LEAs used 102 different methods to forecast pupil numbers! Diamond called for strict national guidelines to govern educational provision within as well as between LEAs.
It was also important, Diamond argued, to consider the impact of improved parental choice on school closures. Recent research had shown that movements of pupils between schools, which rose rapidly in the early 1980s, generally involved movements over a short distance to larger schools, with a reputation for high attainment and in areas with fewer social problems. This has resulted in an accelerated decline in school rolls and increased costs per pupil in disadvantaged areas. The resulting closure of these schools would lead to a further decrease in access to education for pupils from such areas.

Accurate forecasts of the demand for higher education involved additional complications, since it was less dependent on fertility trends. Accurate forecasts had to take into account the factors which influenced participation, which Diamond's research indicated would more than offset the fall in demand resulting from the decline in fertility after 1970. This increased demand for higher education would come from those in social classes 1 and 2, who already comprise 65% of places and are growing as a proportion of the population; from mature entrants; and from women. The increased demand from women reflected their higher expectations and also a large improvement in women's attainment in secondary and further education, which new and very detailed studies in Scotland suggest may be attributable to the introduction of comprehensive education. An increase in the number of mature entrants was also likely, Diamond argued, because of high levels of unemployment and the need to retrain the workforce for the more technologically advanced future, as well as from those denied access to higher education in the early 1980s by financial constraints.

The most recent official forecasts of student numbers for 1996 (contained in the 1987 White Paper Meeting the Challenge), which had taken account of factors other than fertility, were almost 60% higher than the 1982 forecasts, which had not. Diamond warned, however, that even if these increased numbers were achieved the United Kingdom would still lag well behind other Western countries in the proportion of its population in higher education. In 1985, for example, 40% of 18-24 year-olds in the United States were receiving higher education, as opposed to 7% in Great Britain. Indeed, there are signs that participation in higher education has actually been falling in Britain. A successful economy will undoubtedly require more graduates than those forecasted, Diamond concluded.

In the discussion after the talk, some participants questioned whether schools could produce such large numbers of suitably qualified potential students. Diamond replied that his estimates were in fact based primarily on the numbers of 18 year-olds likely to achieve the required level of 'A'-level results. Far from failing to keep pace, schools had achieved a dramatic increase in the numbers of such pupils in the 1950s-80s. Diamond was unable to provide any information on the results of changes in the 'price' of higher education, i.e. from the reduced student grant. He argued, however, that those who had been denied access during the freeze on student numbers tended to be those, such as women and those from lower social classes, who were already underrepresented. Diamond also suggested that increased demand from mature students for retraining made it sensible to provide more financial support for part-time courses, such as those offered by Birkbeck College, London.