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European
Economic History
Institutions and
Growth
The recent literature on endogenous growth has developed various
theories in which institutions affect long-run growth prospects, but
there have been few empirical studies, at least for the European
economies. A CEPR joint workshop with the Centre for Economic
Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics, on `Institutions
and Economic Growth', held at the CEP on 20/21 November, considered the
effects of education, bargaining systems, industrial policies and
payments unions on the long-run, post-war growth performance of several
European economies. This workshop formed part of CEPR's research
programme on `Comparative Experience of Economic Growth in Postwar
Europe', supported by the Commission of the European Communities under
its SPES programme. The workshop was organized by Nicholas Crafts,
Professor of Economic History at the University of Warwick and Research
Fellow in CEPR's Human Resources programme, and Charles Bean,
Professor of Economics at the LSE, CEP Deputy Director, and Research
Fellow in CEPR's International Macroeconomics programme.
Esmond Birnie and David Hitchens (Queen's University,
Belfast) and Karin Wagner (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für
Sozialforschung) opened the workshop with a two-part paper on
`Institutional Impacts on Productivity: A Comparison of Ireland, East
and West Germany'. They first attributed the poor long-run performance
of both parts of Ireland to their `British' systems of education and
training, the two economies' lack of integration, prolonged large
subsidies to inefficient firms and industries, industrial policy and
`the troubles'. They then assessed the German vocational training system
and suggested that this may well be transferable to the UK, although its
reinstatement in Eastern Germany has proved difficult.
Stephen Broadberry (University of Warwick and CEPR) doubted
whether investment in specialized skills is appropriate, since Ireland
is most productive in standardized agricultural goods. Hitchens replied
that the high productivity achieved in its foreign-owned industrial
sector indicated the need to promote the productivity of indigenous
firms.
In the second paper, Barry Eichengreen (University of California,
Berkeley, and CEPR) asked `Was the European Payments Union a Mistake?
Would a Payments Union for the Former Soviet Union be a Mistake as
Well?'. He showed that EPU was clearly superior to trade bilateralism,
but current account convertibility was also largely feasible in the
1950s. He found little evidence that the EPU had distortionary effects
on trade, relative prices or capital flows; it was chosen to tip the
terms of trade in Europe's favour, protecting its living standards and
the post-war social consensus. These `special' reasons for the EPU's
success suggest, however, that a payments union would be unsuitable for
Eastern Europe and the former USSR today.
Alan Milward (LSE) stressed the methodological problem of
choosing appropriate price indices, the overstatement of US financial
leverage, the importance of black markets in ensuring de facto
convertibility, and the link between commercial and industrial policies
allowed by the EPU.
James Symons (University College London and CEP) presented his
joint paper with Manfred Keil and Andrew Newell, `Growth, Convergence
and Education', which developed a model in which capital is interpreted
as the extent of adapting to (exogenous) new world knowledge, adjustment
of such `capital' is costly, and cultural attitudes towards
technological change differ across countries. He derived a
growth-productivity-gap equation and estimated national adjustment costs
and output gaps relative to the US for 17 OECD countries. Adjustment
costs were determined by union density and education expenditure and
were lowest in the US followed by Germany and Canada but surprisingly
high in Japan.
Giorgio Brunello (Università di Venezia) stressed the importance
of learning-by-doing effects, while various participants questioned
whether the estimated high Japanese adjustment costs and output gap
might reflect a conservative attitude to change.
Lars Ekdahl (Arbetslivcentrum, Stockholm) and Alf Johansson
(University of Uppsala) presented their paper on `Labour Market
Institutions and Productivity in Post-war Swedish Industry'. They
maintained that the dissolution of the `Swedish model' the breakdown of
institutional structures and industrial relations and hence of the
social consensus on which it had been based contributed to Sweden's
relatively slow productivity growth since the mid-1970s.
Howard Gospel (University of Kent at Canterbury) questioned the
Swedish model's compatibility with productivity growth and attributed
its apparent success to the high inter- and post-war productivity of
Swedish manufacturing. Several participants suggested further research
on the effects of openness to international trade, wages, and effects of
training systems on sectoral productivity.
In their paper, `Productivity and Bargaining in the Post-war Engineering
Industry', Alan Booth and Joseph Melling (University of
Exeter) investigated the impact of trade unions on productivity in UK
engineering during 1945-55. They found that this specific institutional
framework weakened the support given by industry-wide organizations to
productivity-improving measures by influencing bargaining practices and
shop-floor attitudes. This prevented the emergence of a German-style
`productivity coalition' in the UK.
Geoffrey Owen (CEP) emphasized the high degree of collusion and
complacency that characterized the industry at the time. Howard Gospel
wondered whether decentralized, plant-level bargaining might have
improved its economic performance. Booth replied that this would have
required strong individual unions and truly independent firms.
Giovanni Urga (Queen Mary and Westfield College, London)
concluded the first day with his econometric study, `Trade Unionism and
Manufacturing in Italy in Recent Decades', based on a panel of 45
private, state and foreign-owned firms for 1958-85. Irrespective of
ownership, he found no evidence of direct union effects in the estimated
employment and investment functions, but the positive labour-cost
coefficient in the latter suggests that there is a substitution effect
between capital and labour and that strong trade unions extract some of
the increased rents from capital investment.
In the first paper of the second day, `The British Electronics Industry
from 1960 to the 1990s', Geoffrey Owen challenged the view that
poor performance in the electronics sector has been uniquely `British',
finding a similar pattern in other European countries. He linked the
UK's relative strength in telecommunications to the absence of
international competition and argued that `electronics envy' has focused
too much attention on large firms while the good performance of smaller
companies in the UK has been undervalued.
In discussion, Barry Eichengreen cautioned that comparisons of
industrial policy with Japan must take account of the effects of greater
competition in the UK.
Pedro Fraile Balbín (Universidad Carlos III, Madrid) presented
his paper, `Regulation and Capture in Peripheral Europe: the Spanish
Steel Industry, 1941-1981. An Institutional Analysis', This assessed the
government's establishment of a state-owned, integrated steel mill in
order to break the steel industry's highly cartelized structure and
reduce prices following the Civil War. Engineers and managers that
remained loyal to the private cartel gradually gained control of the
regulatory agencies, however, and the state mill became a Stackelberg
follower to the private cartel. This foiled the government's plans and
led to a rise in prices after 1940.
In discussion, Stephen Broadberry noted that production had become
highly differentiated so that steel prices were difficult to compare.
Alan Milward added that most European integrated steel plants had been
failures anyway.
Giorgio Brunello then presented `Markups in the Labour and
Product Markets and the Relative Performance of Industry and Services:
Italy, 1931-1990', which developed an integrated two- sector model with
monopolistic competition in product markets. His results indicated that
employment growth was explained by mark-ups in product markets and more
importantly in labour markets. The lack of data on self-employment posed
problems, however, while the modelling of endogenous productivity growth
as a function of mark-ups was left for future research.
Ronald Schettkat (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für
Sozialforschung) presented `Productivity Trends in Germany and the US:
Some Speculations on the Influence of Institutions', which showed that
Germany's high productivity growth relative to the US was produced by
only a small part of its population, while the US distributed work (but
not wages) more evenly as a result of its low productivity growth.
Germany's high productivity growth did not lead to a zero-sum game, with
gains paid into transfer payments, but to real gains that were large
enough for winners to compensate losers.
In his paper, `Reward Structures and the Allocation of Talent', Daron
Acemoglu (CEP) developed Baumol's model relating the allocation of
talent between unproductive activities and more productive
entrepreneurship to the rewards offered by making the latter endogenous
in a steady-state analysis. In a dynamic model, past allocations of
talent also affect the reward structure, so historical dependence
explains the simultaneous determination of rewards and talent
allocation.
Gianni Toniolo (Università degli Studi di Venezia and CEPR)
questioned the distinction between rent-seeking and simply unproductive
activities. Geoffrey Owen noted that `individualism' in the 1980s had
made entrepreneurship more respectable.
In the final paper, `Rent-Seeking and Rent-Resistance in Postwar
Britain: Evidence from the Cotton Mills and the Aircraft Factories', John
Singleton (University of Manchester) considered how British industry
had pursued rents after the war. From a case-study of these two
industries in the 1950s and 1960s, he found that governments had not
been easily influenced by business interests in marginal constituencies.
Relations with overseas trading partners and a reluctance to take stakes
in declining industries favoured a mostly non-interventionist industrial
strategy; the few cases of government intervention were largely
unrelated to lobbying by the industries concerned.
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