The European experience of both high levels of unemployment and long
individual unemployment spells is not shared by other industrialized
countries like the US or Japan. There are also clear differences in the
design of such institutions as unemployment benefits, minimum wages,
payroll taxes, firing costs and labour union practices in these
countries. These facts have stimulated research on the role of
institutions in explaining unemployment discrepancies, a central focus
of CEPR's research programme on `Product Market Integration, Labour
Market Imperfections, and European Competitiveness'. Supported by the
Commission of the European Communities under its Human Capital and
Mobility programme, this programme is led by Dennis Snower (Birkbeck
College, London, and CEPR) and divides into five teams organized around
specific topics. The two teams led by Juan Dolado (Centro de
Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (CEMFI), Madrid, and CEPR) and Samuel
Bentolila (CEMFI and CEPR) met at a joint CEPR workshop on
`Imperfections in European Labour Markets' held at CEMFI on 24/25
February.
The Impact of Labour and Product Market Institutions
In the first paper, `Product Quality and Worker Quality', John Abowd
(Cornell University), Francis Kramarz and Antoine Moreau (INSEE)
studied the relationship between product quality and worker quality
using a model which, under certain conditions, establishes a direct link
between product price, product quality and workforce quality. To measure
product quality, the authors use the evolution of the product's price
relative to its broader product group, while worker quality measures
assess the firm's average person effect and personal characteristics
effect from individual wage rates. According to their model, these two
measures should be positively related under perfect competition but
might not be under imperfect competition. Using detailed firm level data
from the French Producer Price Index, they find a weak, generally
positive, relationship between both measures of quality. Marc Van
Audenrode (University of Quebec, Montreal) questioned some of the
empirical evidence relating to the measurement of product quality. He
showed that similar types of petrol in neighbouring US states had
consistently different prices.
In `Fiscal Policy Coordination with Demand Spillovers and Unionized
Labour Markets', Huw Dixon (University of York and CEPR) and Michele
Santoni (University of York) analysed fiscal policy coordination
within a general equilibrium model of the EU that allows for an
equilibrium rate of unemployment. They show that there is a positive
demand externality and that government expenditures are strategic
complements: the optimal level of government expenditure in one country
increases with the level of expenditure in another. The combination of
both features implies that uncoordinated EU fiscal policy involves too
little expenditure. This result contrasts with existing analyses which
stress negative externalities, such as exported inflation and interest
rate effects. Emmanuel Petrakis (Universidad Carlos III de
Madrid) pointed out that by assuming a monopolistic market structure in
output markets, the authors rule out interesting strategic interactions
that might feed back on the bargaining process between employers and
unions. Furthermore, he questioned the assumption of complementarity
between private and public consumption in household preferences, and
wondered how robust the results are to the alternative assumption of
substitutability.
In `Unemployment and Job Security', Pilar Diaz-Vázquez (Birkbeck
College, London) and Dennis Snower explored the effect of job
security legislation on the average level of unemployment in the long
run. Their main conclusion is that job security legislation promotes
employment when macroeconomic shocks are transient and employees have
little market power in the wage determination process. But when shocks
are prolonged and employees have substantial power in wage negotiations,
such legislation reduces employment. This might be an explanation for
Europe's favourable unemployment performance vis-à-vis the US in
the 1950s and 1960s and its unfavourable performance since the
mid-1970s. Omar Licandro (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and
FEDEA) emphasized that the main result of the paper depends crucially on
the wage set-up: an increase in firing costs induces a rise in wages
because the wage curve is negatively sloped. In standard models this can
never occur since the labour supply is positively sloped, however.
In `Markets, Institutions and Wages', Joop Hartog and Coen
Teulings (Universiteit van Amsterdam) compared the estimations of
individual wage equations for the US (a very decentralized bargaining
system) with those for the Netherlands (a more centralized/corporatist
setting). They find that four types of wage differentials in the
Netherlands are smaller than in the US: those associated with industry
affiliation, time size, bargaining regime and tenure. This contradicts
the notion that a decentralized system has smaller non-competitive wage
differentials than a corporatist system. The authors also extend the
comparison to eight OECD countries and find that corporatism tends to
reduce inter-industry wage differentials and flatten wage tenure
profiles. Juan Francisco Jimeno (Universidad de Alcalá de
Henares and FEDEA) argued that labour market institutions are largely
endogenous and the countries' sizes could be particularly relevant in
this case. Thus, comparing the US with the Netherlands is like comparing
a national labour market with a local one.
In `Quitting Externalities, Employment Cyclicality and Firing Costs', Alison
Booth (University of Essex and CEPR) and Gylfi Zoega (Birkbeck
College, London) investigated the possibility that firing costs may be a
second-best response to market failure. They develop a model in which
workers have firm- and industry specific skills, and in each period
there is some quitting. This makes the private discount factor, used by
firms in making decisions about hiring and training new workers and
firing incumbent workers, higher than the social discount factor. As a
result of the quitting externality, firms underinvest in training and
employment becomes too cyclical. Firing costs can reduce the distortion,
since they induce the firm to internalize the worker's full value to
society. Finally, since the extent of the quitting externality is likely
to differ across sectors, the authors argue that there is a case for
determining firing costs at the sectoral level. Michele Santoni argued
that one problem is that the authors do not consider a standard argument
whereby severance payments may reduce workers' resistance to
redundancies, making employment more rather than less cyclical. A second
problem, related to the prescription of sectoral firing costs, is that
firms and unions may engage in rent-seeking activities which cause
misallocation of resources among sectors.
Mismatch and Persistence in Labour and Product Markets
In `Unemployment Duration, Unemployment Benefits, and Labour Market
Programmes in Sweden', Kenneth Carling, Per-Anders Edin,
Bertil Holmlund (Uppsala University) and Anders Harkman (AMS)
analysed the impact of Swedish institutions on unemployment duration. On
the one hand, finite duration of unemployment benefits, by lowering
workers' reservation wages, should raise the probability of leaving
unemployment as the expiration date approaches. On the other hand,
labour market programmes offer the unemployed either training courses or
public jobs, which allow them to regain eligibility for benefits,
thereby mitigating that effect. The paper's results indicate that the
exit rate from unemployment increases by 170% around the time benefits
are due to lapse. This effect is quite significant, but since the
comparable figure for the US is about 400%, the authors conclude that,
to some extent, active labour market programmes diminish the incentives
for leaving unemployment. Jonathan Leonard (University of
California, Berkeley) indicated that the observed increase in job
finding is relative to non-receivers of unemployment benefits, a group
of workers with special characteristics and whose job-finding rate
actually falls. This, he argued, is not explained by the authors'
framework.
In `The Duration of Unemployment and the Persistence of Wages', Jonathan
Leonard and Marc Van Audenrode examined unemployment duration
in Belgium. Their estimates for a sample of workers displaced by
large-scale layoffs suggest that the main reason for long unemployment
duration in Belgium is not a declining probability of leaving
unemployment but a low probability at any point in time. This results
from low job vacancy rates. The authors also compare wages before and
after displacement, separating economy-wide, firm- and
individual-specific wage components. Their results show that the
individual-specific component is the most persistent, especially if the
worker is displaced from a dying firm: there is clearly a lower stigma
from that attached to being dismissed by a going concern. Leonor
Modesto (Universidade Catolica Portuguesa and CEPR) questioned the
impact of vacancy rates on unemployment duration as a pure demand-side
effect, since vacancies should also affect reservation wages. Modesto
also stressed the need for an assessment of the relative importance of
labour market institutions as opposed to personal characteristics.
In `The Anatomy of Unemployment Dynamics', Jaap Abbring and Gerard
van den Berg (Universiteit van Amsterdam), and Jan van Ours
(Erasmus Universiteit) decomposed aggregate unemployment dynamics in
France into its incidence (the likelihood of becoming unemployed) and
duration components. The business cycle was found to affect the outflow
from unemployment positively, but not the inflow, which is mostly a
seasonal variable. There is a negative effect of unemployment duration
on the probability of leaving unemployment after the first year and a
half of a spell, but not before that time. In addition, observed
probabilities of exit from unemployment decrease more slowly in
recessions than at the top of the cycle. This contradicts the
presumption that employers prefer hiring the short-term rather than
long-term unemployed. Bertil Holmlund challenged the finding of no
cyclical effects on the inflow into unemployment: the raw data suggest
cyclical behaviour, and the inflow is measured inaccurately as the
number of people who have been unemployed for less than a quarter.
In `Unemployment Duration and the Relative Change in Individual
Earnings: Evidence from Austrian Panel Data', Karl Pichelmann
(Institut für Hohere Studien, Vienna) and Monika Riedel
(Universität Klagenfurt) studied the wage changes experienced by
Austrian workers after an unemployment spell. Their estimates indicate
that the duration of the unemployment spell has short- and long-run
negative effects on wages, that there is a higher short-run loss if the
worker also changed industry, and that there is no effect of previous
job tenure length. Per-Anders Edin noted that the wage change effects
are estimated jointly with an equation explaining unemployment duration.
This is quite poor, since the latter depends only on the worker's age.
In `Regional Unemployment Persistence (Spain, 1976–93)',
Juan Francisco Jimeno and Samuel Bentolila analysed the
determinants of regional unemployment persistence in Spain. Their
analytical framework shows that real wage flexibility, migration, and
procyclical labour participation all reduce regional unemployment
persistence, and have enhanced effects if all simultaneously move in the
right direction. Their empirical results suggest an extreme degree of
persistence of relative regional unemployment rates in Spain arising
from the interaction of low migration, low cyclicality of participation,
and low real wage flexibility. Gerard van den Berg pointed out that the
authors need to trace the causes of unemployment persistence back to
labour market institutions, housing market imperfections and government
responses to regional shocks.