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Industrial
Organization
R&D Spillovers
New research in endogenous growth theory and economic geography has
highlighted the importance of technological spillovers for understanding
growth and economic performance. This research involves both theoretical
and empirical work, drawing upon diverse branches of economics,
including trade theory and industrial organization. A joint CEPR
workshop with the Université de Lausanne held on 27/28 January, brought
together leading theoretical and empirical economists in the field to
consider such issues as the conduct of anti-trust policy vis-à-vis
cooperation in R&D, the impact of R&D spillovers on
productivity, and the spatial distribution of spillovers. The conference
was organized by Damien Neven (Université de Lausanne and CEPR)
and David Audretsch (WZB and CEPR), and funding was provided by
the European Commission's SPES programme. A volume of papers presented
is now available.*
In the first paper, `Scale, Scope and Spillovers: Determinants of
Research Productivity in Pharmaceuticals', written with Iain Cockburn, Rebecca
Henderson (MIT) examined the determinants of research productivity
in the pharmaceutical industry using detailed internal firm data. The
authors find that larger research efforts are more productive, not only
because of conventional economies of scale, but also due to important
economies of scope. The latter are realized by sustaining a diverse
portfolio of research projects and by capturing internal and external
spillovers of knowledge. This pattern has become more pronounced as the
industry has moved from `random' to `rational' techniques of drug
discovery. The authors also find large and persistent heterogeneities
among firms, both in research productivity and in the structure of their
research portfolios. Thomas von Ungern (Université de Lausanne)
questioned the generally held view that the pharmaceutical industry is
particularly innovative. He suggested that more research should be done
to assess the social rate of return on R&D investment in the
industry, arguing that econometric results are indicative of decreasing
returns rather than economies of scale. He also suggested that a
structural model should be applied in view of the long lag between
research and innovative output.
In `R&D Productivity: A Survey of the Econometric Literature',
written with Pierre Mohnen, Jacques Mairesse (ENSAE-CREST)
presented the various approaches adopted by econometricians for
assessing the impact of R&D investment on the productivity of firms
and industries. It emerges that, even within a given framework, few of
the studies are fully comparable. The survey underlines the usefulness
of the rarely used dual approach based on cost functions: this should
complement and improve the results of the primary approach based on
production functions. The survey also confirms that R&D helps to
improve the productivity of firms, and that there is evidence of
positive externalities across firms and industries. Overall, it appears
that the private and social rates of returns on research capital are
greater than those on physical capital. Since the knowledge capital
stock is much smaller than the physical capital stock, its contribution
to overall productivity is still relatively modest, however. Yannis
Katsoulacos (Athens University of Economics and Business and CEPR)
found the survey a good introduction to the subject, but regretted that
no clear link between theory and empirical work was established. It was
also suggested that the distinctive nature of technological spillovers
should be clarified: input versus output spillovers, and endogenous
versus exogenous spillovers.
In `The Demands for Factors of Production and the Pursuit of Industrial
R&D', James Adams (US Bureau of the Census and University of
Florida) examined the impact of industrial R&D on the composition of
inputs, using induced innovation theory. His model consists of R&D
firms enjoying some market power with costs described by translog cost
functions. The paper uses this to estimate factor bias induced by
R&D, that is, the impact of R&D spending on the cost share of
four inputs: white and blue collar labour, structures and equipment. The
main findings are that total R&D is biased towards white collar
labour and equipment. When R&D spending is treated as a dependent
variable, equipment prices discourage R&D, the price of white collar
labour has no effect, while blue collar and capital structure prices
encourage R&D. These findings are broadly consistent with the idea
that R&D is factor saving in structures and blue collar labour.
However, applied product R&D reveals a more complex pattern: in this
case equipment and structure prices no longer matter.
Iain Cockburn (University of British Columbia) wondered whether
the constant R&D/sales ratio was truly a random walk or simply
reflected arbitrary budgeting decisions by firms. He also pointed out
that data gathering and aggregation by the Census Bureau could pose
serious problems in the estimation procedure. This is illustrated by the
variable used to measure investment in equipment, for which the
estimated elasticity of substitution has the wrong sign in 30% of the
cases. Cockburn also noted that the theoretical model consisted of
single product firms, while the panel included multi-product firms that
engaged in product and process innovation.
In `Science-Based Diversity and the Geography of Innovation', Maryann
Feldman (Carnegie Mellon University) and David Audretsch examined
the geography of innovation at the city level. Their paper suggests that
industries that rely on similar academic departments tend to cluster
together spatially. In particular, the degree to which an industry is
specialized within a city, the extent to which the industrial base of
the city is diversified, and the degree of local competition for local
factors of production all shape the innovative output of a particular
industry located in a specific city. Based on a large database of
innovation citations for the US for specific cities and disaggregated
manufacturing industries, the authors find considerable evidence that
innovative output tends to be greater in cities  with  diversified
complementary  production. Alfred Kleinknecht (Vrije
Universiteit Amsterdam) indicated that similar results emerge from
detailed survey data from the Netherlands. Jacques Mairesse suggested
that the presence of relevant academic departments within a city might
be acting as a proxy for infrastructure.
In `R&D Collaboration and Specialization in the European Community',
Frank Lichtenberg (Columbia Business School) examined the
geographical distribution of R&D collaboration in the EUREKA
programme. The data appear to be consistent with the hypothesis of
spatial concentration of R&D collaboration. Cluster analysis is also
consistent with existing estimates of international R&D spillovers.
The paper also examines and contrasts the role of organizations
(universities, and small and large firms) in the innovation process. The
main findings are that university research is more basic than company
research, and that in most cases, large firms' research is more basic
than that of small firms. The evidence is also  consistent  with
 the hypothesis that the optimal firm size necessary for
commercialization exceeds that necessary for applied R&D.
Maryann Feldman indicated that government sponsored programmes such as
EUREKA alter the incentives to collaborate. For example, there is a
premium on having a poor member of the EU in proposed ventures. In this
context, she wondered whether innovation diffusion, rather than
collaboration, was the objective of such programmes. Damien Neven asked
whether it would be possible, on the basis of this sample, to identify
the matching functions of public authorities in Member States and the
Commission. David Audretsch suggested focusing on countries which
possess a comparative advantage in knowledge generation.
In `Information Revelation, R&D Cooperation and Technology Policy',
written with Yannis Katsoulacos, David Ulph (University College
London and CEPR) examined the process of R&D competition and
cooperation in the presence of spillovers. Unlike most of the
literature, the authors treat these spillovers as endogenous and under
firms' control. They show that as soon as spillovers are endogenous, it
is essential to make a number of distinctions: between information
sharing, research coordination and cooperation; between substitute and
complementary research paths; and between firms in the same industry or
in different sectors. The authors find that allowing cooperation is
sufficient to induce full information sharing/research coordination, so
that the justification for public subsidies lies in encouraging firms to
increase R&D when it is insufficient. Their analysis suggests that
R&D subsidies are desirable to increase the level of research, but
are not necessary to correct information problems.
Raymond De Bondt (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) stressed the
importance of this research programme by pointing out that in practice,
firms do control information flows. He regretted that information
exchange and spillovers were only modelled in the profit function,
however. He also suggested that the stability of the cooperative
solution be examined more thoroughly. On the basis of the paper's
result, he drew some policy implications regarding the EU's technology
policy. He wondered whether subsidizing R&D was not diverting
entrepreneurial activity from wealth creation into rent seeking of EU
grants. Iain Cockburn stressed that appropriating spillovers was costly,
so that subsidizing R&D could contribute to reducing the cost of
benefiting from spillovers.
In `Public Policy Towards R&D in Oligopolistic Industries', written
with Dermot Leahy, Peter Neary (University College Dublin and
CEPR) examined the free market and socially optimal outcomes in a
dynamic oligopoly model that allows for non-linear demands and
spillovers. The authors find that first-best optimal subsidies to
R&D are higher when firms play strategically against each other and
lower when they cooperate on R&D, at least when spillovers are high.
Optimal subsidies are lower when firms play strategically against the
government, however. The authors also find that second-best optimal
subsidies are higher than first-best ones. Furthermore, simulations of
their model suggest that the welfare cost of lax anti-trust policy is
high in all cases.
Damien Neven showed that the arguments developed in the paper depend on
whether cost-reducing R&D and output were strategic complements or
substitutes in this two-stage game. On the one hand, cooperation solves
the externality problem associated with spillovers, that there is
insufficient R&D because of limited appropriability. On the other
hand, cooperation reduces the strategic value of R&D-induced cost
reductions at the output competition stage (the business stealing
effect), which in turn will reduce R&D. He argued that these
findings have important policy implications: cooperation would reduce
rather than increase R&D spending, because profit shifting would be
less of a motivation. In this context, R&D ventures should be viewed
as a form of collusion rather than cooperation.
In `R&D Spillovers and Productivity in German Manufacturing Firms', Dietmar
Harhoff (Universität Mannheim and ZEW) estimated the effect of a
firm's own R&D and of R&D spillovers on the labour productivity
of German manufacturing firms. Using a panel of 443 firms observed every
two years from 1979–89, the author finds that R&D
spillovers do not have a homogeneous effect on all firms in the sample.
Roughly half of them appear to experience  positive productivity
effects from R&D spillovers, and these tend to be located in high
technology industries. Some of the results suggest a more intricate
pattern, however, consistent with the `absorptive capacity' hypothesis:
that the effect of spillovers on productivity may be contingent on the
firm's own R&D capital stock. Bronwyn Hall (University of
California, Berkeley) noted the quality of this empirical study but
found some results difficult to interpret. For example, industry and
pool dummies are substitutes in the factor demand equation. She
suggested adapting the framework of analysis to non-atomistic agents by
introducing strategic interactions between firms. James Adams argued
that sources of learning are very diversified and that the pooling
technique used in the paper might therefore misrepresent this
phenomenon.
In `The Demand and Supply of Knowledge: Innovations, Patents and Cash
Flow in a Panel of British Companies', written with Paul Geroski and
Chris Walters, John Van Reenen (University College London)
examined the interrelationship between the patenting activities,
innovative capacity and financial resources of a panel of British firms.
The authors estimate a dynamically recursive model, using observable
measures of innovations, patents and cash flow. They find that lagged
patents are significant predictors of current innovations, but lagged
innovations do not affect the conditional expectations of current
patents. They also report that innovations are influenced primarily by
advances in the science base as  measured by R&D intensity
and spillovers. Innovations depend on the flow of patents, but are more
sensitive to temporary shocks such as changes in demand. It also emerges
that innovations have a greater impact on cash flow than patents. In
addition, both innovations and patents show a strong pattern of history
dependence. Simulations of the model suggest that policies geared
towards promoting technological advance have only a limited impact.
Marco Vivarelli (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) pointed
out that some innovations are not patented, suggesting that the sequence
of events might be different from that modelled by the authors. He noted
that the explanatory power of some regressions was very low. Alternative
estimation techniques, such as full information models or seemingly
unrelated regressions, could shed additional light on these issues. In
his view, the impact of public intervention (technology policy) is
underestimated in the simulations. Rebecca Henderson argued that instead
of using a count number of patents, the authors should use citations
instead.
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