VoxEU Column

Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts

Forecasting the evolution of an epidemic is of utmost importance for policymakers and healthcare providers. This column examines the predictive accuracy of the COVID-19 death projections produced by several independent forecasting teams and collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The authors find that forecasters can be more successful over long horizons (three to four weeks) than a simple benchmark model. The ensemble forecast, which combines all forecasts, is one of the top performers.