DP16681 Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

Author(s): Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan D. Ostry, Nour Tawk
Publication Date: October 2021
Keyword(s): containment measures, COVID-19, Pandemics, vaccinations
JEL(s): C31, C33, E65, F4, O50
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics and Finance
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16681

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020â??June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country's health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country's domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.