DP4273 Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate Countries Referenda

Author(s): Orla Doyle, Jan Fidrmuc
Publication Date: February 2004
Keyword(s): eu enlargement, integration, referendum, voting, Z13
JEL(s): J61, P26, P33
Programme Areas: Transition Economics, Institutions and Economic Performance
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=4273

We analyse support for EU membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries? referenda on EU membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favourable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution.