ECBN 2016 Research Papers

The 2nd Policy Research Conference of the European Central Banking Network held on 29-30 September 2016 brought together a distinguished group of researchers from 20 central banks, senior officials of other international financial institutions and leading academics to present and discuss policy-oriented research on “Macroprudential Instruments and Financial Cycles”.

Authors presented their research on linkages between credit and financial cycle and monetary policy conduct, financial and business cycle identification and early warning indicators, implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer, as well as other macroprudential tools for tackling cyclical systemic risk. Countries that already introduced or announced positive countercyclical capital buffer rate shared their experience, while some authors focused on the assessment of macroprudential instruments, already indicating the topic of the 3rd ECBN conference.

Does Primary Sovereignty Risk Matter for Bank Fragility? Evidence from Albanian Banking System 

Gerti Shijaku (Bank of Albania) 

Countercyclical Capital Regulation in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model

Matija Lozej (ECB), Luca Onorante (Central Bank of Ireland), Ansgar Rannenberg (ECB)

Detecting credit cycle and setting countercyclical capital buffer in the Czech Republic

Jan Frait, Jan Hájek, Miroslav Plašil (Czech National Bank)

New Macroprudential Tools: the Countercyclical Capital Buffer in Norway

Haakon Solheim (Norges Bank)

Monetary policy, the financial cycle and ultralow interest rates

Mikael Juselius (Bank of Finland), Claudio Borio (BIS), Piti Disyatat (Bank of Thailand), Mathias Drehmann (BIS) 

Identifying excessive credit regimes

Norbert Metiu, Leonid Silbermann, Ursula Vogel (Deutsche Bundesbank)  

Insights on the Greek economy from the 3D macro model

Hiona Balfoussia, Dimitris Papageorgiou (Bank of Greece)

An Italian take on the credit-to-GDP-gap

Piergiorgio Alessandri, Pierluigi Bologna (Banca d´Italia)

Financial and real cycle synchronisation in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries

Mite Miteski, Ljupka Georgievska (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Capital Buffer Release

Yi-An Chen, Vasja Sivec, Matjaž Volk (Bank of Slovenia)

Identifying the financial cycle in Slovakia

Patrik Kupkovič, Martin Šuster (National Bank of Slovakia)


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