Geneva Trade and Development Workshop: Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan
On Monday 20 September, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan will present her paper on "The Economic Cases for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks", joint with Cem Cakmakli, Selva Demiralp, Sevan Yesiltas and Muhammed A. Yildirim. http://econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/assets/workingpapers/COVID_Vaccine_May2021.pdf
Paper Abstract: "COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arririval of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, can be higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological framework that combines a SIR model with international production and trade networks. Based on this framework, we estimate the costs for 65 countries and 35 sectors. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries."
The GTDW is an established regular trade and development seminar series organized jointly by the Geneva School of Economics and Management of the University of Geneva (GSEM), the Graduate Institute in Geneva (IHEID), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). After twelve years of running as an on-site seminar, the online edition of GTDW is co-organized with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Visit GTDW's website for further information: www.gtdw.ch.