Online Geneva Trade and Development Workshop 3: Beata Javorcik on "Unravelling Deep Integration"

Unravelling Deep Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote

Beata Javorcik, EBRD, University of Oxford and CEPR
Joint with Ben Kett, Layla O’Kane and Katherine Stapleton

Abstract: This paper uses high frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the Brexit referendum on labour demand between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to the threat of trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports saw a differential decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.