The latest findings of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC) - March 2023

The Euro Area is Resisting a Recession

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 13 March 2023 to assess the state of euro area economic activity, relying on data through the fourth quarter of 2022. Following a mild expansion starting at the end of 2021, real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 halted, but did not turn significantly negative, as a large drop in private consumption and investment was offset by a similarly large reduction in imports. The output growth pause contrasts with a continued robust expansion in employment, especially in the service sector. Indeed, the euro area unemployment is currently at its lowest level since before the formation of the single currency area.

The full statement of the CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is available here.

About the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee establishes the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards. 

It also comments, in the spring and in the fall, on the current state of aggregate economic activity in the euro area and launches research initiatives designed to better monitor and understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.

Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched and pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.