DP14398 Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research

Author(s): Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Publication Date: February 2020
Keyword(s): business cycles, Financial Frictions, Uncertainty shocks
JEL(s): E30, E32, E50
Programme Areas: Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
Link to this Page: cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14398

We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we motivate the study of uncertainty shocks by documenting the presence of time-variation in the volatility of macroeconomic time series. Second, we enumerate the mechanisms that researchers have postulated to link uncertainty shocks and business cycles. Third, we outline how we can specify uncertainty shocks. Fourth, we postulate a real business cycle model augmented with financial frictions and uncertainty shocks. Fifth, we use the model to illustrate our previous discussions and to show how uncertainty shocks can be expansionary.