DP5516 The Geography of Output Volatility
|Author(s):||Adeel Malik, Jonathan Temple|
|Publication Date:||February 2006|
|Keyword(s):||Bayesian model averaging, geography, institutions, volatility|
|Programme Areas:||International Macroeconomics, Institutions and Economic Performance|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5516|
This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications.