DP8439 Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment
Author(s): | Roger E A Farmer |
Publication Date: | June 2011 |
Date Revised: | September 2012 |
Keyword(s): | animal spirits, old-Keynesian, rational bubbles, unemployment |
JEL(s): | E00, E12, E24 |
Programme Areas: | International Macroeconomics |
Link to this Page: | cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=8439 |
This paper develops a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates where the price of capital may be unbounded above. I argue that this property is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large negative self-fulfilling shock to the expectation of the future price of capital. This shock causes a permanent reduction in wealth and consumption and a permanent increase in the unemployment rate. My work suggests that economic policies designed to reduce the volatility of asset market movements will significantly increase economic welfare.