The UK’s post-Brexit trade relationship with the EU: Through a glass, darkly
In this post, Alan Winters argues that uncertainty will continue whether or not the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is approved by Parliament.
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In this post, Alan Winters argues that uncertainty will continue whether or not the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is approved by Parliament.
First posted on:
UK Trade Policy Observatory, 10 December 2018
The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are being presented as a means to end the uncertainty about the UK’s future relationship with Europe. But in an explainer for the ESRC’s UK in a Changing Europe, I argue that this is not the case. Uncertainty will continue regardless of what happens to the Withdrawal Agreement.
Briefly, I argue that, if the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by Parliament and the EU:
However, neither would rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement resolve the uncertainty. There is a wide range of possible outcomes all but one of which impose serious economic harm and/or require further negotiation. The option that involves least uncertainty and cost would be to remain within the EU; however, trying to achieve that outcome involves both significant political risks and the risk of ‘no deal’ if the attempt failed.
‘Through a glass, darkly’ is biblical – 1 Corinthians 13:12 – and is interpreted as meaning that we can see only imprecisely and via a mirror, but that, in the end, all will become clear. Seems about the best we can hope for.
Read the full article, "What are the options for the UK’s trading relationship with the EU after Brexit?", here.