Discussion paper

DP12944 Global Crises and Populism: the Role of Eurozone Institutions

Populist parties are likely to gain consensus when mainstream parties and status quo institutions fail to manage the shocks faced by their economies. Institutional constraints, which limit the possible actions in the face of shocks, result in poorer performance and frustration among voters who turn to populist movements. We rely on this logic to explain the different support of populist parties among European countries in response to the globalization shock and to the 2008-2011 financial and sovereign debt crisis. We predict a greater success of populist parties in response to these shocks in Euro zone countries, and our empirical analysis con firms this prediction. This is consistent with voters' frustration for the greater inability of the Euro zone governments to react to dicult-to-manage globalization shocks and financial crises. Our evidence has implications for the speed of construction of political unions. A slow, staged process of political uni cation can expose the EU to a risk of political
backlash if hard to manage shocks hit the economies during the integration process.


Guiso, L, H Herrera, M Morelli and T Sonno (eds) (2018), “DP12944 Global Crises and Populism: the Role of Eurozone Institutions”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 12944. https://cepr.org/publications/dp12944