Discussion paper
DP19006 Inflation Preferences
We document novel survey-based facts on preferred long-run inflation rates among U.S. consumers. Consumers on average prefer a 0.20% annual inflation rate, considerably below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Inflation preferences not only correlate with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, but also with economic reasoning. A randomized control trial reveals that two narratives based on economic models---describing how inflation lowers the real value of wages as well as money holdings---affect inflation preferences. While our results can inform the design of central bank communication on inflation targets, they also raise questions about the alignment between such targets and consumer preferences.
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