DP5562 Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
|Author(s):||Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz|
|Publication Date:||March 2006|
|Keyword(s):||event futures, information markets, instrumental variables, market manipulation, prediction IV, prediction markets|
|JEL(s):||C9, D7, D8, G1, M2|
|Programme Areas:||Labour Economics, Public Economics|
|Link to this Page:||www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5562|
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.