Discussion paper

DP10087 A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model where government spending affects aggregate demand directly and indirectly, through an expectational channel. Prices are fully flexible and the model is static, so intertemporal issues play no role. There are three important elements in the model: (i) fixed adjustment costs for investment; (ii) noisy idiosyncratic information about the economy; and (iii) imperfect substitution among private goods and goods provided by the government. An increase in government spending raises the demand for private goods and raises firms' expectations about what others will be producing and demanding. The optimal level of government expenditure is larger when the desired level of investment is small, which we interpret as times of low economic activity


Guimaraes, B (2014), ‘DP10087 A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 10087. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp10087