Discussion paper DP17461 Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees Todd Clark Florian Huber Massimiliano Marcellino Michael Pfarrhofer 12 Jul 2022 Nonparametric var Regression trees Macroeconomic forecasting Scenario analysis Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C53
Discussion paper DP17369 Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law Claudia Foroni Francesco Furlanetto 8 Jun 2022 Okun's law Labor markets Business cycle fluctuations Bayesian var Monetary Economics and Fluctuations E24 E32 C32
Discussion paper DP17265 When do state-dependent local projections work? Silvia Goncalves Ana Maria Herrera Lutz Kilian Elena Pesavento 28 Apr 2022 Local projection State-dependent impulse responses Threshold Identification Nonlinear var International Macroeconomics and Finance C22 C32 C51
Discussion paper DP17196 GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix Martin Almuzara Dante Amengual Gabriele Fiorentini ENRIQUE SENTANA 8 Apr 2022 Cointegration Comprehensive revisions Signal extraction Us aggregate output Vintages Monetary Economics and Fluctuations E01 C32
Discussion paper DP17153 Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables Daniel Lewis Karel Mertens 29 Mar 2022 Structural equations Instrumental variables Impulse responses Robust inference Phillips curve Inflation dynamics Monetary Economics and Fluctuations E3 C32 C36
Discussion paper DP17134 Local Projections in Unstable Environments: How Effective is Fiscal Policy? Atsushi Inoue Barbara Rossi Yiru Wang 24 Mar 2022 Time variation Local projections Instability Path estimator Weighted average risk Fiscal policy Fiscal multiplier monetary policy Government spending Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C22 C26 C32 C36 C53
Discussion paper DP17111 Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices Thomas Hasenzagl Filippo Pellegrino Lucrezia Reichlin Giovanni Ricco 15 Mar 2022 Real-time forecasting Output gap Phillips curve Semi-structural models Bayesian estimation Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C53 E31 E32 E52
Discussion paper DP17049 On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Earnings and Consumption Heterogeneity Minsu Chang Frank Schorfheide 18 Feb 2022 Consumption distribution Earnings distribution Functional vector autoregressions Heterogeneous agent models Monetary policy shocks Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C52 E32
Discussion paper DP17035 Sequential Monte Carlo With Model Tempering Marko Mlikota Frank Schorfheide 15 Feb 2022 Bayesian computations Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models Sequential monte carlo stochastic volatility Vector autoregressions Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32
Discussion paper DP16818 Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read’s ‘Narrative Restrictions and Proxies’ Lutz Kilian 18 Dec 2021 Structural var Single prior Multiple prior Posterior Joint inference Impulse response Narrative restrictions International Macroeconomics and Finance C11 C32 C52
Discussion paper DP16760 Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic Frank Schorfheide Dongho Song 29 Nov 2021 Bayesian inference Covid-19 Macroeconomic forecasting Minnesota prior Real-time data Survey of professional forecasters Vector autoregressions Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C53
Discussion paper DP16669 What are the likely macroeconomic effects of the EU Recovery plan? Evi Pappa Fabio Canova 26 Oct 2021 Recovery and resilience fund Countercyclical policies Regional inequalities R&d and human capital investment Externalities Macroeconomics and Growth C32 E27 E32 H30
