Discussion paper

DP15273 Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy

We show that global liquidity limits the effectiveness of local monetary policy on credit markets. The mechanism is via a bank carry trade in international markets when local monetary policy tightens. For identification, we exploit global (VIX, U.S. monetary policy) shocks and loan-level data —the credit and international interbank registers— from a large emerging market, Turkey. Softer global liquidity conditions attenuate the pass-through of local monetary policy tightening on loan rates, especially for banks with more access to international wholesale markets. Effects are also important for other credit margins and for risk-taking, e.g. riskier borrowers in FX loans or defaults.

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Citation

Peydró, J, S Fendoglu and E Gulsen (eds) (2020), “DP15273 Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 15273. https://cepr.org/publications/dp15273