Discussion paper

DP16245 Global Risk and the Dollar

How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They cause a synchronized contraction of global economic activity and appreciate the dollar. Other key financial indicators adjust in line with predictions of recent theoretical work. Second, we illustrate through counterfactuals that the dollar appreciation amplifies the adverse impact of global risk shocks outside of the US via a financial channel.


Georgiadis, G, G Müller and B Schumann (eds) (2021), “DP16245 Global Risk and the Dollar”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 16245. https://cepr.org/publications/dp16245