Discussion paper

DP16971 Monetary Policy during Unbalanced Global Recoveries

We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable services. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully beared domestically, however, part of the gains in terms of higher supply of tradable goods spill over to the rest of the world. National central banks may thus fall into a coordination trap, and implement an excessively tight monetary policy during tradable goods-driven recoveries.


Fornaro, L and F Romei (2022), ‘DP16971 Monetary Policy during Unbalanced Global Recoveries‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 16971. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp16971