Discussion paper

DP18197 Government Debt Management and Inflation with Real and Nominal Bonds

Can governments use TIPS to tame inflation? We propose a novel framework of optimal debt management with sticky prices and a government that issues nominal and real state-uncontingent bonds. Nominal debt can be monetized giving ex-ante flexibility, whereas real bonds are cheaper but constitute a commitment ex-post. Under Full Commitment, the government chooses a leveraged portfolio of nominal liabilities and real assets to use inflation to smooth taxes. With No Commitment, it reduces borrowing costs ex-ante using real debt strategically to prevent future governments from monetizing debt ex-post. Such policies match U.S. data, with higher TIPS shares effectively curbing inflation.

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Citation

Schmid, L, V Valaitis and A Villa (2023), ‘DP18197 Government Debt Management and Inflation with Real and Nominal Bonds‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18197. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp18197