Discussion paper

DP18956 Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation

This paper surveys the major facts from research on disagreement between households on what they expect inflation to be. We document them using figures and correlations that capture: the statistical regularities on the observable drivers of disagreement, the measurement of residual disagreement, the usefulness of disagreement to forecast inflation, the response of disagreement to shocks, the disagreement between households and professionals, and the relation between disagreement, risk, and uncertainty.


Fofana, S, P Patzelt and R Reis (2024), ‘DP18956 Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18956. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp18956