Discussion paper

DP7901 Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.


Rose, A and M Spiegel (2010), ‘DP7901 Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 7901. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp7901