Discussion paper

DP17196 GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix

We exploit the information in the successive vintages of GDE and GDI from the current comprehensive revision to obtain an improved timely measure of US aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures and taking seriously their monthly release calendar. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, does not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. The estimated parameters of our dynamic state-space model suggest that comprehensive revisions have not changed the long-run growth rate of US GDP.

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Citation

Almuzara, M, D Amengual, G Fiorentini and E SENTANA (eds) (2022), “DP17196 GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 17196. https://cepr.org/publications/dp17196