DP17410 Measuring Brexit Uncertainty: A Machine Learning and Textual Analysis Approach
In this paper we develop a series of Brexit uncertainty indices (BUI) based on UK newspaper coverage. Using unsupervised machine learning (ML) methods to automatically select topics, our main contribution is to generate timely and cost-effective indicators of uncertainty. In further analysis we are able to distinguish Brexit related uncertainty from the uncertainly due to COVID-19. Our indices can be used to investigate Brexit-related uncertainties across different policy areas.