Discussion paper

DP19002 Delayed Childbearing and Urban Revival: A Structural Approach

Since 1980, college graduates have increasingly sorted into the downtowns of U.S. cities. This led to urban revival, a process that involves fast growth in income and housing prices downtown. Motivated by the observation that young childless households concentrate downtown, we link urban revival to delayed childbearing. As college graduates postpone parenthood, more of them are childless when young and locate downtown. Estimating a dynamic model of fertility timing and within-city location choices, we find delayed childbearing accounts for 52% of urban revival. The impact of changes in fertility choices is amplified by the response of housing prices and amenities.


Moreno-Maldonado, A and C Santamaria (2024), ‘DP19002 Delayed Childbearing and Urban Revival: A Structural Approach‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19002. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp19002