Discussion paper DP16096 Optimal Price Targeting Adam Smith Stephan Seiler Ishant Aggarwal 14 Jul 2022 Targeting Personalization Heterogeneity Choice models Machine learning Industrial Organization C11 C33 C45 C52 D12 L11 L81
Discussion paper DP17461 Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees Todd Clark Florian Huber Massimiliano Marcellino Michael Pfarrhofer 12 Jul 2022 Nonparametric var Regression trees Macroeconomic forecasting Scenario analysis Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C53
Discussion paper DP17391 Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agents Models with Neural Networks Leonardo Melosi Matthias Rottner 17 Jun 2022 Machine learning Neural networks Bayesian estimation Global solution Heterogeneous agents Nonlinearities Aggregate uncertainty Hank model Zero lower bound Macroeconomics and Growth Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C45 D31 E32 E52
Discussion paper DP17111 Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices Thomas Hasenzagl Filippo Pellegrino Lucrezia Reichlin Giovanni Ricco 15 Mar 2022 Real-time forecasting Output gap Phillips curve Semi-structural models Bayesian estimation Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C53 E31 E32 E52
Discussion paper DP17049 On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Earnings and Consumption Heterogeneity Minsu Chang Frank Schorfheide 18 Feb 2022 Consumption distribution Earnings distribution Functional vector autoregressions Heterogeneous agent models Monetary policy shocks Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C52 E32
Discussion paper DP17035 Sequential Monte Carlo With Model Tempering Marko Mlikota Frank Schorfheide 15 Feb 2022 Bayesian computations Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models Sequential monte carlo stochastic volatility Vector autoregressions Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32
Discussion paper DP16994 Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context Yu Bai Andrea Carriero Todd Clark Massimiliano Marcellino 2 Feb 2022 Multi-country vars Macroeconomic forecasting Hierarchical shrinkage Scale mixtures of normals priors Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C33 C53 C55
Discussion paper DP16818 Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read’s ‘Narrative Restrictions and Proxies’ Lutz Kilian 18 Dec 2021 Structural var Single prior Multiple prior Posterior Joint inference Impulse response Narrative restrictions International Macroeconomics and Finance C11 C32 C52
Discussion paper DP16760 Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic Frank Schorfheide Dongho Song 29 Nov 2021 Bayesian inference Covid-19 Macroeconomic forecasting Minnesota prior Real-time data Survey of professional forecasters Vector autoregressions Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 C53
Discussion paper DP16430 The Transmission of Keynesian Supply Shocks Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi Andrea Ferrero 7 Aug 2021 Sectoral shocks Input-output network Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 E32
Discussion paper DP16346 Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: An Application to Endogenous Uncertainty Massimiliano Marcellino Andrea Carriero Todd Clark 8 Jul 2021 Endogeneity Causality stochastic volatility Bayesian methods Monetary Economics and Fluctuations C11 C32 D81 E32
Discussion paper DP16233 Demand for Online News under Government Control: Evidence from Russia Justin Rao 8 Jun 2021 Media Media capture Censorship Demand for news Product differentiation Text as data Development Economics Industrial Organization Public Economics C11 C55 D72 L15 L82 L86 M31 P26
