Gabriel Perez-Quiros is Adviser at D.G. Research at the European Central Bank. He has a PhD in Economics from the University of California San Diego. He previously worked at the Bank of Spain, the Spanish Fiscal Authority, the Economic Bureau of the Prime Minister and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He is a Research Affiliate of the CEPR. He has published extensively on forecasting methods and the applications of non-linear models to the analysis of economic and financial variables over the business cycle