DP16821 Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
|Author(s):||Gordon Dahl, Runjing Lu, William Mullins|
|Publication Date:||December 2021|
|Date Revised:||January 2022|
|Keyword(s):||Elections, Fertility, partisanship|
|Programme Areas:||Labour Economics, Public Economics, Political Economy|
|Link to this Page:||cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16821|
Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.