Discussion paper

DP10567 Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012

We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1926 and 2012. The difference between unemployment and the NAIRU is a significant determinant of inflation in a simple backward-looking Phillips Curve that incorporates import prices. While there is a break in 1979-80, when the link to Sterling was abandoned, this effect is present in the full sample and in the subsamples spanning 1926-1979 and 1980-2012. The econometric model assumes that the NAIRU follows a random walk.


Gerlach, S, R Lydon and R Stuart (2015), ‘DP10567 Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 10567. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp10567