Discussion paper

DP16729 Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations

We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations. Unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance, are weaker. In liquidity traps, the government spending output multiplier is finite, and adverse aggregate supply shocks are not expansionary. The possibility of confidence-driven liquidity traps is attenuated.


Gorodnichenko, Y and D Sergeyev (2021), ‘DP16729 Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 16729. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp16729