Discussion paper

DP18412 Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Expectations

We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two-year horizon, both in and out of sample. Exchange rate expectations are also interpretable, in the sense that three macro-finance variables -the risk-neutral covariance between the exchange rate and equity market, the real exchange rate, and the current account relative to GDP- explain most of their variation. Moreover, there is no "secret sauce" in expectations: after controlling for the three macro-finance variables, the residual information in survey expectations does not forecast currency appreciation in our sample.


Kremens, L, I Martin and L Varela (2023), ‘DP18412 Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Expectations‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18412. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp18412